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For the past weeks, temperatures in Colorado have surged 20 to 30 degrees above average for March, normally one of the state’s snowiest months.��

That’s on top of an unusually warm and dry winter for the American Southwest, a region already grappling with long-term water shortages since around 2000. In Colorado, snowpack sits at about 40% of normal levels, among the lowest since comprehensive modern records began roughly four decades ago.

In parts of the southern , a 250,000-square-mile watershed spanning seven states in the southwest, snowpack has dropped to less than one-third of normal. The basin provides water for 40 million people and 5.5 million acres of farmland.

Snowpack acts like frozen water towers, said Ben Livneh, associate professor in the department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering. As temperatures rise and the Southwest enters its typically hot and dry spring and summer months, melting snow provides��about 80% of the water used by downstream communities in the Colorado River Basin.��

In response to the snow drought, the city of Denver recently declared a , the first drought alert the city has issued since the summer of 2013. Other Front Range cities are considering similar measures.��

“In Colorado, our peak snowpack happens around mid-April, so there is still a chance that we could get more snow,” said Livneh, who’s also the director of the Western Water Assessment (WWA) at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (). According to the , a storm is bringing precipitation to Colorado this week, with the potential for a few inches of accumulation in the mountains. “But at this point, it does look like we have a long way to go to catch up.”

�鶹��Ѱ�����Boulder Today sat down with Livneh to talk about the impact of a snow drought on Colorado communities, whether drought is the new normal and what individuals can do.��

How dry is it?

Colorado lies in a mountainous region far from the ocean, so our climate naturally varies a lot. As a result, it’s not uncommon to see big swings between wet years and dry years.

Right now, we are in a very dry period, and the numbers are pretty stark. There’s barely any snow on mountains in lower elevations, and some snowpack could melt early because of the warm weather. When we look ahead to the amount of water expected to flow into our reservoirs, which would be the water people actually get to use, the current forecasts fall among the lowest we’ve seen since the early 1980s when the detailed snow measurements began.����

How does this year compare with previous drought years?

There were some years that were drier, like 1977 and 1981. But those years weren’t as warm as this year. Over the past 40 years, since we’ve had continuous observation data, 2002 and 2012 were also warm with low precipitation, but they weren’t as dry as this year.

We have a lot of systems in place that were specifically designed to handle individual bad years, like these big, impressive reservoirs. But we’ve been in a dry period for the past 25 years, and every dry year puts additional stress on our infrastructure.

What could be causing this snow drought?

We’re currently in the warmest 25-year period on record, and warming is one of the clearest signals of recent climatic changes. When it’s warmer, the atmosphere can hold more moisture.��

At the same time, the climate in our region naturally swings between wetter and drier decades. It’s almost like a pendulum that shifts every 20 or 30 years.

What may be happening now is that those two things— climate change and natural fluctuations— are overlapping, creating something of a perfect storm for this year.

What is the WWA doing to help?

WWA is working to support decision makers to best manage their water, based on what is actually available, as well as what is forecasted in the Colorado River Basin.��

Much of our regional economy relies on water, from the ski industry to food growers and power generators. The stress from drought is widespread.��

Our region’s planning and treaties in the past were based on assumptions about historical conditions. Now we’re trying to figure out whether these dry conditions are a drought or perhaps closer to the long-term normal conditions.��

We are also trying to get a better sense of what mountain communities are experiencing and what types of information they need, because many of them rely on the snowpack and snow melt as their primary reservoir for water.

Should people be worried about water shortages right now?

This is really a large-scale phenomenon, so if anything, I would encourage people to get curious about the science and what we can say about the current conditions. Indoor water use doesn’t consume very much, and cities are not really at risk of running out of water. But people should be mindful not to waste water outdoors. Pay attention to city rules for outdoor water use, like when you can turn on your sprinklers and water your lawn.

Other than that, I encourage people to go outside. This is certainly a big departure from what we think Colorado winters should be like, but it also offers opportunities for people to bike to work more often, or spend more time outdoors doing things they might not otherwise be able to do.